2013 Oscars Predictions

It’s that time of the year again, where I reveal my predictions for the Oscars. Here’s hoping for another good year. I didn’t guess last year’s Best Picture correctly, so I hope to at least get that one this year. I think I missed about 5 or 6 last year, and I was happy to get all of the short films correct for once. I tend to guess 2 out of those 3 correct. Well, anyways, I’ll provide some commentary on individual categories below.

1. Best Picture: “Lincoln”
2. Best Leading Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, for “Lincoln”
3. Best Leading Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, for “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, for “Lincoln”
5. Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, for “Les Miserables”
6. Best Director: Steven Speilberg, for “Lincoln”
7. Best Original Screenplay: “Amour”
8. Best Adapted Screenplay: “Argo”
9. Best Cinematography: “The Life of Pi”
10. Best Editing: “Zero Dark Thirty”
11. Best Production Direction: “Anna Karenina”
12. Best Costume Design: “Anna Karenina”
13. Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Hobbit”
14. Best Original Score (Music): “The Life of Pi”
15. Best Original Song: ‘Skyfall’ from “Skyfall”
16. Best Sound Mixing: “Les Miserables”
17. Best Sound Editing: “The Life of Pi”
18. Best Visual Effects: “The Life of Pi”
19. Best Animated Film: “Wreck-It Ralph”
20. Best Foreign Language Film: “Amour”
21. Best Documentary : “Searching for Sugar Man”
22. Best Short Documentary: “Mondays at Rancine”
23. Best Short Animated Film: “Paperman”
24. Best Short (Live Action) Film: “Curfew”

1. Why not “Argo”? Because it wasn’t nominated for Directing, and to vote for it without that is a problem. Why not “Zero Dark Thirty”? This film is too similar to “The Hurt Locker” in its structure (not content, obviously). “The Hurt Locker” just won Best Picture recently, so that doesn’t help “Zero Dark Thirty”

In the end, I just can’t bring myself to vote for “Argo”, even though it might win. I just can’t see this film winning since I think the only other award it will win is Adapted Screenplay, which some say will go to “Lincoln” anyways. “Lincoln” just has more going for it and is a safer bet. Don’t be too surprised if we see an upset, such as “Silver Linings Playbook”.

2. It’s hard to forget Lewis’ performance in “There Will Be Blood”. His performance was basically that entire movie. I presume the same will go for his performance in “Lincoln”, though it certainly wasn’t just that carrying the entire movie.

3. It’s always one of these four categories that seems difficult to predict. I will rule out Wallis for being too young, though I don’t doubt that she had a good performance. Amour has a lot going for it in the fact that it was nominated for not only Best Foreign Film (which it will win) but also for Directing and even Best Picture. So I don’t doubt that this actress could win here. However, I don’t see her as being a safe choice. So I’ll go with Jennifer Lawrence.

4. Perhaps tougher to predict than Leading Actress is this category. Everyone my age likes Christoph Waltz, which is probably why he won’t win. He won kind of recently with another Tarantino movie, so that doesn’t help him.

Narrowing it down from there gets tougher. I feel like I know the other four actors rather well, and it will really depend on which one gave a nuanced enough performance in their respective roles. It doesn’t help that I haven’t seen any of these movies yet. Honestly, unless Arkin did something breakthrough in “Argo”, I don’t see him winning. Tommy Lee Jones seems as good as any, so I will go with him for now. Don’t be too surprised if Hoffman walks with this one, though.

5. She’s such a good actress that is liked by so many people. I would be surprised if she didn’t win.

8. I don’t think Argo will win Best Picture, mainly because it wasn’t nominated for Directing. But the screenplay should be enough to win it. With “Pi” getting so many of the other categories, I am hoping Academy voters will recognize “Argo” here if they feel that this film deserves even one win.

10. This feels like the film that will win it, based on the director’s tightly-packed film of yesteryear, “The Hurt Locker”

20. It should be very obvious why Amour wins here-it’s the only one of these choices nominated for Best Picture.

23. A lot of people saw “Paperman” on YouTube, thanks to Disney. It also helps that it was shown before “Wreck-It Ralph”. I am saying that a lot of people saw it, and that helps.

This might be the quickest year I have done. Perhaps this was one of the easier years. It’s still a toss-up for many of these categories. Look forward to a post that takes new twist on Oscar predicting very soon.