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Feb 24 2017

2017 Oscars Predictions

I almost didn’t do an Oscars list this year, but I was able to sneak it in this year. For those wondering about other blog posts, I have some in progress to be posted later this year. But this post is obviously on the upcoming Oscars. Here are my predictions of who will take home awards this year!

Predictions

1. Best Picture: “La La Land”
2. Best Leading Actor: Casey Affleck, for “Manchester by the Sea”
3. Best Leading Actress: Emma Stone, for “La La Land”
4. Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, for “Moonlight”
5. Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, for “Fences”
6. Best Director: Damien Chazelle, for “La La Land”
7. Best Original Screenplay: “Manchester by the Sea”
8. Best Adapted Screenplay: “Moonlight”
9. Best Cinematography: “La La Land”
10. Best Editing: “Arrival”
11. Best Production Direction: “La La Land”
12. Best Costume Design: “Jackie”
13. Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Suicide Squad”
14. Best Original Score: “La La Land”
15. Best Original Song: ‘City of Stars’ from “La La Land”
16. Best Sound Mixing: “La La Land”
17. Best Sound Editing: “La La Land”
18. Best Visual Effects: “The Jungle Book”
19. Best Animated Film: “Zootopia”
20. Best Foreign Language Film: “The Salesman”
21. Best Documentary: “13th”
22. Best Short Documentary: “Joe’s Violin”
23. Best Short Animated Film: “Piper”
24. Best Short (Live Action) Film: “Ennemis Interieus”

Explanations

1. It’s peculiar that the years that I choose riskier movies I tend to get them wrong, but then last year, I chose the ‘safe’ choice of “The Revenant” and got it wrong. This year, I am not sure how close “La La Land” and “Moonlight” are, but it seems to be between these two movies. Having seen neither of them hurts, but “La La Land” seems to be the frontrunner, so I will go with that.

10. It looks like “La La Land” will sweep a lot of awards this year, including technical awards. I always have to add one or two ‘risky’ choices to my ballot, so I am going to take that chance here with the editing of “Arrival”. I considered doing my risky vote on cinematography, but “Arrival” won the editor’s guild award for Best Edited Feature Film, Dramatic. While “La La Land” also won basically the same award, but in the category of Best Edited Feature Film, Comedy, I think that “Arrival” will have a slight edge with its very unique format for how it tells its story to the audience. If there’s one thing that I think people remember from “Arrival”, it is that its edits are very intentional. I think that will carry it to victory in this category.

15. Going through each nomination, the one that some people think will win is ‘How Far I’ll Go’ from “Moana”. It doesn’t have the staying power that ‘Let It Go’ had. ‘Can’t Stop the Feeling’ has a great beat, but is too short and doesn’t really do much lyrically. ‘The Empty Chair’ feels like a strong contender, reminiscent of the simplicity of ‘Falling Slowly’ from “Once” several years back. However, it may be a song enjoyed yet forgotten for enough Oscar voters. ‘Audition’ is interesting, but ‘City of Stars’ is a slightly better song. ‘City of Stars’ has a unique edge in this category, where the singers are laughing through some of their singing, which makes this the most ‘original’ song. And many other predictions seem to indicate this is the song to pick this year. So, I’m going to stay safe with ‘City of Stars’, but like many years with this category, don’t be surprised if another song wins.

18. I don’t want “The Jungle Book” to win, but since the entire film was CG and it looks real anyways, I think it will snag the Oscar this year.

19. Pixar not being on the list was surprising, but I doubt that Finding Dory is as good as Finding Nemo, and it also might be that people are hoping for more original films to be awarded, and thus we have our five movies. I’m going to guess “Zootopia”, based on the sharp writing and its commentary on people who may seem to be shunned by society based on their appearance or background.

Final Thoughts

I made this list more quickly this year, and almost didn’t make this list at all. I may stop my Oscars predictions’ lists from next year. But for now, I found enough time to make a list that I am mostly comfortable with. I tried to throw in a few riskier choices because the Oscars always has a surprise or two. But, I probably played it relatively safe compared to other years. Let’s see how it goes come this Sunday!

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