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Feb 26 2016

2016 Oscars Predictions

I don’t have time this year for bowling and I won’t be able to explain many of the choices. Below the list are a few explanations for why I will predict that winner for that category.

1. Best Picture: “The Revenant”
2. Best Leading Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, for “The Revenant”
3. Best Leading Actress: Brie Larson, for “Room”
4. Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, for “Bridge of Spies”
5. Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander, for “The Danish Girl”
6. Best Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu, for “The Revenant”
7. Best Original Screenplay: “Spotlight”
8. Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Big Short”
9. Best Cinematography: “The Revenant”
10. Best Editing: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
11. Best Production Direction: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
12. Best Costume Design: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
13. Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
14. Best Original Score (Music): “The Hateful Eight”
15. Best Original Song: ‘Til’ It Happens to You’ from “The Hunting Ground”
16. Best Sound Mixing: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
17. Best Sound Editing: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
18. Best Visual Effects: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
19. Best Animated Film: “Inside Out”
20. Best Foreign Language Film: “Son of Saul”
21. Best Documentary: “Amy”
22. Best Short Documentary: “A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness”
23. Best Short Animated Film: “World of Tomorrow”
24. Best Short (Live Action) Film: “Shok”

Explanations

1. Every other year, I choose a ‘safe’ winner and the year in-between those, I choose a winner that more than likely won’t win but has a chance. This year, that film is “Spotlight”. However, last year was the year I tried for that kind of choice with “Boyhood”. This year, I will go with the safer “The Revenant”, despite that it has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes rating of all of the Best Picture nominees, at 82%. The lack of any screenplay nomination also hurts its chances. But, if the Golden Globes are any indication, we can expect “The Revenant” to take the victory here, whether or not it’s actually the best film from 2015.

6. I would have considered George Miller, but Inarritu won the DGA award, so I may as well go with this.

7. “Spotlight” seems the safer bet here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if something else, perhaps even an animated film, takes the cake here.

10. I’m extremely happy that “Star Wars” got nominated for this category, as it absolutely deserved it, if only for keeping the runtime just over 2 hours and still making it feel exciting and worthwhile. That is to say, I think a lot of films opt for throwing more and more things at the viewer because somehow people have accepted that movies are 2.5 hours nowadays. There are certainly times where I will accept a 2.5 hour runtime, such as Nolan’s films. The Furious films…not so much (though I probably should just be avoiding them in the first place).

In any case, “Mad Max” feels like the winner here for the same reason “Star Wars” felt good as a movie. There is no point in the movie where a scene feels overly long or unnecessary. That’s what good editing does. And boy, does “Mad Max” feel tight.

Final Thoughts

It’s strange to me that this will be another year for Inarritu, and while I have not seen his first film “Amores Perros” nor his latest film, “The Revenant”, he has only made one good film in my estimation, and that was “Babel”. “Babel” was the one he got right. Something happened with the director/writer duo of himself and Guillermo Arriaga. They parted ways after “Babel”, perhaps due to it being mostly snubbed at its respective Oscars night in 2007. Inarritu seems to have revenge as an element in each of his films, as least partially. “Babel” was the one where it felt more restrained, because the characters were in such low positions in their respective situations that they hardly had time for serious so-called ‘revenge’. I have no interest in his latest fare, though I am sure I will inevitably see it somehow.

In any case, to avoid more ranting about how “Babel” deserved best picture, there are my predictions for this year’s Oscars.